White House budget director says economy is 'weak'

Calling the economy 'weak,' Obama's budget director says stimulus plan needs time to work

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The White House's top budget official declared on Sunday that "fundamentally, the economy is weak" while saying the administration's own financial predictions could need a revision by midyear.
Peter Orszag, President Barack Obama's Office of Management and Budget director, said in television interviews that the economic downturn has been years in the making but cautioned that the new administration wasn't yet looking at a second economic stimulus package. Orszag said the already-in-place $787 billion stimulus should have a chance to work before officials ask Congress to consider a sequel.

"I don't think we should be chasing our tail, constantly revising assumptions," Orszag said. "Let's see what happens, let it work. We'll have a mid-session review later in the year. We'll have an opportunity to revise the assumptions at that point."

That revision, though, seemed unavoidable.

Obama's budget assumes the economy will grow at about 3.2 percent. Given climbing unemployment, shrinking credit and a general frustration over a crumbling economy, that now seems unrealistic.
Orszag acknowledged the federal budget is "uglier than we would like," but he blamed most of the spending on last year's budget process and defended Obama's decision to go forward with it without seeking more changes.
"This is like your relief pitcher coming in into the ninth inning and wanting to redo the whole game," he said. "Next year, we will be the starting pitcher and the game is going to be completely different."
The $410 billion spending bill includes the kinds of lawmakers' pet projects that Obama pledged as a candidate to eliminate. His top aides say Obama would overlook for now the time-tested tradition that allows lawmakers to divert millions at a time to pet projects, called "earmarks," in the hopes of moving on.
The measure expected to be voted on by the Senate this week keeps the government open for business through Sept. 30, when the federal budget year ends. Taxpayers for Common Sense, a watchdog group, identified almost 8,600 earmarks totaling $7.7 billion; Democrats say the number is $3.8 billion and that just under half of the projects come from GOP lawmakers.
Republicans weren't swayed by Orszag's argument, saying the Democratic spending bill doesn't address the problems or keep Obama's campaign pledges.
"First of all, if you make a promise, people expect that you live up to it. And that's why this administration's refusal to go in and change this bill, I think, is a false position," said Rep. Eric Cantor, the GOP's No. 2 official.
"There is no way anyone could take what Mr. Orszag has said with any credibility," Cantor said. "Of course they're negotiating on this bill in the Senate right now. To say that 'we would have drawn it differently' but leave $430 billion-plus dollars on the table like this? No way."

Republican leader John Boehner of Ohio tried to remain civil in his opposition.
"Listen, I want to work with the president on behalf of the American people," Boehner said. "That's what they sent us to Washington to do. And while I like the president as much as the American people do -- I think he's a great guy -- there are serious differences in terms of the approach that he would like to take and the approach that I think many Republicans would like to take."
Boehner said it's unacceptable that taxpayers would subsidize mortgages under Obama's plan, which aims to slow foreclosure rates and stem plummeting home values as neighborhoods spout "for sale" signs.
Orszag defended the administration's stark assessment of the economy, arguing that honesty would matter more than spin.

"People have been critical that we've either been too optimistic or too pessimistic. What the president is trying to do is tell the truth," said Orszag, who linked the nation's economy to its health care costs.
Orszag, one of the president's top advisers on health policy, said the administration remains committed to having broad changes in the current model within the first year. He said, however, that the policy was not inflexible, given its importance in managing the nation's budget.
"I'm going to again say we think this is the best way of proceeding, but of course other people have ideas, and they should put them on the table," he said.
Orszag also pleaded for patience as the 6-week-old administration looks for solutions: "Well, I think fundamentally, the economy is weak. Job losses began in January of 2008. The stock market started declining October 2007. This has been, you know, eight years in the making, and again, it's going to take some time to work our way out of it."
Orszag appeared on CNN's "State of the Union" and CBS's "Face the Nation." Cantor appeared on CNN while Boehner appeared on CBS.

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Wall St Week Ahead: GM, banks' fate to keep investors on edge

NEW YORK (Reuters) - With stocks mired in multi-year lows and the fate of General Motors and banks hanging in the balance, investors are unlikely to curb their flight from risk this week, putting Wall Street on track for another brutal sell-off.
One focal point will be a meeting between the U.S. auto task force and GM (NYSE:GM - News), Chrysler and officials from the United Auto Workers in Detroit this week after auditors raised doubts about GM's ability to survive outside bankruptcy.

Uncertainty over the plan to salvage banks will also hang over the struggling sector until more concrete details from Washington are revealed, leaving investors to fret that companies that were once pillars of the financial system will have to be nationalized.
The weak economy will likely be confirmed by a handful of economic reports, including a government report on February retail sales and a survey of consumer sentiment.
"There are, unfortunately, no guideposts to a lot of the market to allow investors to get a better sense of direction of where the market is going, where corporate America is going," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago.
"Short of that, we're going to likely have to rely on Washington. Unfortunately, it just seems like Washington's relationship with the stock market is strained."

"PAINFUL" MARKET
With the Dow and S&P trading at 12-year lows, and the Nasdaq sliding to six-year lows, market watchers will be looking for signs of whether a bottom has been found, or if indexes still have another leg down to go.
Last week was the fourth week of declines for all three major U.S. stock indexes, as the Dow Jones industrial average (DJI:^DJI - News) dropped 6.2 percent and the Nasdaq composite index (Nasdaq:^IXIC - News) fell 6.1 percent. The Standard & Poor's 500 (^SPX - News) slid 7 percent, its worst week since November.
"I've been in the business since 1963 and I've truthfully never seen a market that is so discouraging or painful," said Carl Birkelbach, chief executive officer of Birkelbach Investment Securities in Chicago.
"I've been through a lot, but this is the worst I've seen."

The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that about $50 billion of more than $173 billion of U.S. government bailout money poured into American International Group Inc (NYSE:AIG - News) has been paid to at least 24 financial institutions around the world.
Already cheap bank stocks continued their tumble last week. The stock price of Dow component Citigroup (NYSE:C - News), once the world's most valuable bank by market capitalization, fell under $1 for the first time, reigniting anxiety over the bank's health and that of the entire banking sector.
Clarity on how toxic assets will be cleared off banks' balance sheets and how those assets will be valued is key to stabilizing the financial sector and seeing markets manage a sustainable recovery, analysts said.
"In order to move forward, we need (Treasury Secretary) Geithner to come out and tell us the answer to the question: 'How do you value the assets?'," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. in San Francisco.
"We may be happy about it, we may not be happy about it, but at least we'll know."
Members of the U.S. autos task force will visit Detroit this week to meet with GM, Chrysler and officials from the United Auto Workers labor union, an official for the Obama administration said on Friday.
GM's failure could trigger round of massive layoffs and hurt companies that supply and manufacture parts, said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank in New York.
In all, GM's bankruptcy could lop off 4 percentage points from the U.S. gross domestic product, of which two-thirds is driven by consumer spending, LaVorgna said.

CONSUMER PSYCHOLOGY 101

Ahead of the Fed's policy-making meeting the following week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is set to address the Council on Foreign Relations on Tuesday. Investors will be watching for any comments on the state of the economy and the outlook for banks.
Economic data on February retail sales on Thursday and a preliminary reading on March consumer sentiment on Friday, coupled with quarterly results from office supplies and electronics retailer Staples Inc (NasdaqGS:SPLS - News) on Wednesday, should give a gauge of consumer spending. January's international trade deficit report is due on Friday.
Economists polled by Reuters forecast that retail sales will slip 0.5 percent in February, after January's unexpected gain of 1 percent. They forecast a preliminary March reading on consumer sentiment of 55.0, down from 56.3 for February, from the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. The international trade deficit is forecast to drop to $38.1 billion in January from $39.93 billion in December.
Last week, U.S. retailers posted better-than-expected same-store sales for February, helped by a strong gain at Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT - News), the world's largest retailer and the leading U.S. discount chain. But analysts cautioned that stores will have to show consistent improvement for expectations of weakness to change.


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Obama: Time of crisis can be 'great opportunity'

Obama sounds hopeful theme, says country will turn bleak times into `great opportunity'

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Trying to buck up a dispirited nation, President Barack Obama on Saturday promised that prosperous days will return and cast these bleak times as nothing less than a "great opportunity." Packing some heft with his hope, he defended his fast-moving and expensive agenda.
"We will get through this," Obama said in his weekly radio and video address, taped Friday after another week of downbeat news.
The unemployment rate climbed to 8.1 percent, the highest in more than 25 years. Stock values kept tumbling, down to their lowest levels since 1997. The latest Gallup polling finds that an anemic 20 percent of people in the United States are satisfied with the state of the nation. At least that's an improvement from the 14 percent a month earlier.
Rather than pitch ahead to his next message, Obama devoted his address to recapping what his team did this past week to help get people working and spending.
The goal was to demonstrate that the administration is on the case and, more broadly, that history shows American resilience will win.
"We've experienced great trials before," Obama said. "And with every test, each generation has found the capacity to not only endure, but to prosper -- to discover great opportunity in the midst of great crisis. That is what we can and must do today. And I am absolutely confident that is what we will do."

The echoes of history emerge often as Obama seeks a balance between the practical language of governing and the oratory meant to keep people inspired. Just a few days earlier, he promoted new transportation plans by saying the nation built itself up before, during the Civil War and the Great Depression.
Recent efforts include a more detailed plan to help struggling homeowners avoid foreclosure; another plan to spur lending for people and businesses; an overhaul of the way the government hands out private contracts to reduce waste; and a summit on how to overhaul health care.
He defended his budget proposal, whacked Wall Street "accounting tricks" and sent a message to Congress that it must make some tough choices.

Separately, the president offered advice to people struggling to pay their bills. He told The New York Times that people should be prudent and get back to fundamentals, with an eye on steady savings, reasonable returns and long-term investing.
"What I don't think people should do is suddenly stuff money in their mattresses and pull back completely from spending," Obama told the newspaper in an interview posted on its Web site Saturday. "I don't think that people should be fearful about our future. I don't think that people should suddenly mistrust all of our financial institutions because the overwhelming majority of them actually have managed things reasonably well."
The president would not say whether the economy will be growing again by year's end. He said that timing depends on several factors. Notable among them was his call for other countries to take actions to shore up their financial markets and coordinate those actions with the U.S.

Another busy week awaits Obama, who was at Camp David for the weekend with his family.
On Monday, he plans to reverse President George W. Bush's restrictions on federal funding for stem cell research. On Tuesday, it is a push for education overhaul. Come Thursday, he will discuss the economic rescue with state officials.
"From the day I took office, I knew that solving this crisis would not be easy, nor would it happen overnight," Obama said in the weekly address. "And we will continue to face difficult days in the months ahead. But I also believe that we will get through this -- that if we act swiftly and boldly and responsibly, the United States of America will emerge stronger and more prosperous than it was before."
More than 4 million jobs have disappeared since the recession began in December 2007. The rate of the job losses is only accelerating.

Obama says the country can't afford to take on one big problem at a time. Politically, his strongest time to attack them all may be now.

In one of the biggest examples, he has set a goal of signing a bill this year that would fix the health care system, which leaves millions uninsured.
Obama says he is not wedded to a plan on how to fix the problem. But one proposal he has endorsed, giving people the option of buying medical coverage through a government plan, is drawing opposition from Republicans.
Rep. Roy Blunt, R-Mo., emphasized that point in the GOP's weekly radio address. "I'm concerned that if the government steps in it will eventually push out the private health care plans millions of Americans enjoy today," Blunt said.



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When economy bottoms out, how will we know?

Economists watching a range of indicators in hopes of spotting the bottom of the economy

When will this wretched economy bottom out? The recession is already in its 15th month, making it longer than all but two downturns since World War II. For now, everything seems to be getting worse: The Dow is in free fall, jobs are vanishing every day, and one in eight American homeowners is in foreclosure or behind on payments.
But the economy always recovers. It runs in cycles, and economists are watching an array of statistics, some of them buried deep beneath the headlines, to spot the turning point. The Associated Press examined three markets -- housing, jobs and stocks -- and asked experts where things stand and how to know when they've hit bottom.
None of them expects it to come anytime soon.

JOBS

HOW BAD IS IT?: The U.S. unemployment rate hit 8.1 percent in February, a 25-year peak. The nation has lost 4.4 million jobs since the recession began in late 2007.
The job cuts began early last year, as the housing and construction industries slowed down. The collapse of the financial industry in the fall battered white-collar workers. Soon, layoffs spread across industries and income levels.
HOW MUCH WORSE COULD IT GET? The darkest days for the job market are almost certainly still ahead. With spending weak and credit markets stalled, experts think the economy will probably shed a total of 2.4 million jobs this year. That would mean an unemployment rate above 9 percent.
That would easily surpass the 2001 and 1990-91 recessions but trail the 10.8 percent rate of December 1982. Those expectations could be optimistic: The government's "stress tests" to check the strength of banks' balance sheets assume a 10.3 percent rate.
The job market will probably be weak for years, even if the economy starts to turn around next year. The unemployment rate may not fall back to its pre-recession level of 5 percent until 2013, according to Moody's Economy.com.

WHERE'S THE BOTTOM?: Economist Sophia Koropeckyj, a managing director at Moody's Economy.com, is keeping an eye out for two signs -- an inching up in companies hiring temporary workers and a rise in the number of hours worked by those who have managed to keep their part-time and full-time jobs.
When business conditions improve, employers hire temporary workers first, she said, and a pickup in permanent hiring wouldn't be far behind. Koropeckyj estimated that could come in mid-2010.

HOUSING
HOW BAD IS IT?: The median price of a home sold in the United States fell to $170,300 in January, down 26 percent from a year and a half earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors.
But that figure masks the complexity of the market. Price drops have been far steeper around Phoenix and Las Vegas, where new homes sprouted everywhere during the housing boom, than, say, in Detroit, where economic problems predate the recession.
And even within a single metro area, price declines vary sharply. Faraway suburbs, where many buyers stretched to qualify for mortgages, have been hit harder than city centers.
This housing crash has spread pain more widely than any before it. Home prices fell about 30 percent during the Great Depression, according to calculations by Yale University economist Robert Shiller. But the nation was less concentrated in urban centers then. And a much smaller proportion of adults owned homes.
Other housing downturns in recent decades have been regional. This one is truly national. Prices in the fourth quarter of 2008 fell in nearly 90 percent of the top 150 metro areas, according to the Realtors group. And 5.4 million homeowners, about 12 percent, were in foreclosure or behind on mortgage payments at the end of last year.
HOW MUCH WORSE COULD IT GET?: The Federal Reserve estimates home prices could fall 18 to 29 percent more by the end of 2010. Declines will probably be less severe in cities with healthier economies that don't have a glut of unsold homes, like Tulsa, Okla., and Wichita, Kan.
The nation's overall economic health is vital to the health of housing. "History tells us that as long as we're losing jobs, that's not good news for the housing market," said Nicolas Retsinas, director of Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies.
WHERE'S THE BOTTOM?: Susan Wachter, a professor of real estate at the University of Pennsylvania, is watching the backlog of unsold homes. At January's sales pace, it would take about 9 1/2 months to rid the market of all those properties. A more normal pace would be six months.
Once foreclosures level off and the backlog is cleared, Wachter says, the housing market can begin to recover. But even with the Obama administration directing $75 billion in bailout money to stave off foreclosures, most economists don't expect home prices to bottom out before the first quarter of 2010. And don't expect an explosive rebound: Price increases will probably be modest when they come.

STOCKS
HOW BAD IS IT?: The Dow Jones industrial average and the Standard & Poor's 500 index have lost more than half their value since the stock market peaked in October 2007. It's the worst bear market since the aftermath of the crash of 1929, when the Dow plunged 89 percent and the S&P 500 index tumbled 86 percent.
HOW MUCH WORSE COULD IT GET? Analysts generally think Wall Street has endured the worst of the bear market. But many of those same analysts never thought the market would fall this far.
Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago, said the Dow could fall to 6,000 if the economy slows much further and unemployment rises well past the current 8.1 percent. He pegs the likelihood of that at about 30 percent. Others are more pessimistic. Bill Strazzullo, chief market strategist for Bell Curve Trading, contends the Dow might fall to 5,000 and the S&P to 500.
WHEN WILL THE BOTTOM COME?: In downturns over the past 60 years, the S&P 500 has hit bottom an average of four months before a recession ended and about nine months before unemployment hit its peak.
Investors will be looking for turnarounds in housing, lending and employment, plus signs that consumer spending has picked up. Then market players would be more likely to move their money from safe havens, such as gold, back into stocks.
Other investors may look to obscure indicators such as the Baltic Dry Index, which tracks the cost of shipping iron ore, grain and other materials. Rising rates can indicate demand for raw materials is increasing, which suggests a strengthening economy.
But most of all, traders are waiting for a sudden spasm of selling known as capitulation. That wrings fearful investors out of the market, and as they rush out, bargain-hunters rush in. Capitulation would trigger a huge plunge in prices and frenzied trading volume.
Many market experts say the bottom of the stock market could come in the second or third quarter of this year. And the recovery, whenever it comes, could be as breathtaking as the fall: Since 1932, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 46 percent in the year after stocks have hit a bottom.


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A look at the week ahead for Wall Street

With little in the way of earnings or market-moving economic news on tap this week, stocks will continue to take a cue from the financial sector as investors try to see if the latest levels can hold.
There's been such a tremendous selloff in the financial sector and in some of the retailers, that at some point even traders who are betting on a weak market are going to want to get in, said Fred Dickson, chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co.

And the mild reaction to a dismal jobs report last Friday could suggest that the time is nearing.

"How much lower can Citigroup go when it's down around a buck?," asked Dickson, adding, "We're starting to get to the point where the risk of a big upside in the market is greater than the risk of a bigger downside."
With the Dow and S&P 500 both down more than 50% off their October 2007 highs, a decent bounce is not hard to imagine, said Gary Hager, president of Integrated Wealth Management.
He said that the pent-up demand is equivalent to shoppers pressing against the door of a store that is about to open for a sale, but the shoppers wont' budge until the first few jump in. Once they start moving, the rest will follow.

Ripe for a bear market rally. In both October and November of 2008, the stock market stabilized at levels that many market pros were betting could be the bottom, before ultimately declining further. That could be the case now as well, Dickson said. But he also said that some of what he has been seeing lately is reminiscent of the way Wall Street ultimately stabilized during the last bear market, bottoming between October 2002 and March 2003.
Dickson noted that the number of New York Stock Exchange stocks making new lows has dropped dramatically with each so-called "bottom," in October, November and now. As such, that could indicate a stabilization.
Also, from a contrarian perspective, stocks are ripe for a bounce. The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) said 70.3% of investors surveyed were bearish, as of Wednesday. That's the highest level since the index was created in 1987.

The bearish sentiment index has been hovering between 39 and 55 over the past two months, but then last week suddenly jumped to 70.3, said Cara Scatizzi, associate financial analyst at AAII.
In tune with the bearish tone, investors pulled billions out of equity mutual funds last week. According to the latest report from Trim Tabs, investors pulled $29.9 billion out of stocks in the week ended March 4, versus an outflow of $18 billion in the previous week.

The question is what might help soothe the market and even trigger a bear-market rally. So far, most of the government initiatives announced have failed to provide the spark, including the $787 billion stimulus plan, Treasury's "stress tests" for banks and President Obama's $3.6 trillion 2010 budget.
Dickson said that indications over the next month that Congress is going to chip away at some of the spending in the budget could help, while Hager said the suspension of the mark-to-market accounting rule would help.
On the docket
Tuesday: The January wholesale inventories report is due shortly after the market opens. Inventories are expected to have fallen 1% after dropping 1.4% in December.
In Washington, the Senate Energy Committee holds a hearing on offshore drilling. On Thursday, the same committee discusses transmission lines.
Wednesday: The government's weekly crude inventories report is due out at 10:30 a.m. ET, as well as the February Treasury budget at 2 p.m. ET.
In Washington, the congressional oversight panel is due to release a report on the oversight of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), a.k.a. the bank bailout plan.

Thursday: February retail sales are due before the start of trade from the Commerce Dept. Sales are expected to have fallen 0.4% after rising 1% in the previous month. Sales excluding volatile autos are expected to have fallen 0.2% after rising 0.9% in January.
The government's weekly jobless claims report is also due in the morning. 640,000 Americans are expected to have filed new claims for unemployment versus 639,000 in the previous week. Weekly claims hit a 26-year high of 667,000 in February. The number of Americans continuing to stay on unemployment is expected to remain near record levels of 5,112,000.

The January business inventories report is due for release after the start of trading. Inventories are expected to have fallen 1.1% after dropping 1.3% in the previous month.
In Washington, a House Financial Services sub-committee debates mark-to-market (MTM) accounting, a rule that critics say has exacerbated the credit crisis. MTM requires banks to report the value of their investments if they sold them now, even though some of those assets - like mortgage-backed securities - have tumbled dramatically.
Friday: The January trade balance, due before the start of trading, is expected to have widened to $38.2 billion from $39.9 billion in December.
Also due are reports on February import and export prices and the initial March consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan.


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